SCB WEALTH recently held a seminar titled “Solutions Amidst Uncertainty” for its Private Banking clients, featuring expert insights from BlackRock executives. The event focused on decoding global and Thai economic trends and providing investment portfolio strategies designed to generate sustainable returns in a persistently uncertain market environment. Distinguished attendees included SCB executives Mr. Patrick Poulier (middle), First Executive Vice President of the Financial Markets Function and Head of Private Banking Relationship Management; Mr. Roongroj Seksunwiriya (far left), Senior Vice President of Investment Product Selection; and Dr. Piyasak Manason (3rd from left), Head of Research at InnovestX Securities. They were joined by Mr. Nikhil Mehra (2nd from right), Managing Director and Head of APAC Multi-Asset Strategies & Solutions at BlackRock; Mr. Mark Fuszard (3rd from right), Director of APAC Multi-Asset Strategies & Solutions at BlackRock; and Mr. Thanapol Itthinithipak (2nd from left), Head of BlackRock Thailand. The seminar was held at SO/ Bangkok Hotel.
Dr.Piyasak Manason, Head of Research at InnovestX Securities, noted that the Trump administration’s Reciprocal Tariff policy has led to higher tax rates on countries with large trade surpluses with the U.S., particularly in Asia. While the average global tariff rate imposed by the U.S. currently stands at around 28%, it is expected that negotiations will bring this down to approximately 15%. Nevertheless, the trade war has contributed to a downward revision in 90global economic growth, which has slowed by about 0.8% to 2.5% this year. Although global industrial production saw a brief recovery prior to the escalation, recent signs of a manufacturing slowdown, especially in Europe and Asia, reflect the growing impact of trade tensions in the second half of the year.
Dr. Piyasak added that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its policy rate at 4.38% through year-end, as Trump's tariff measures may trigger stagflation. With inflation projected to rise to 3.0% and accelerate in the second half of 2025, the Fed is likely to prioritize inflation control, limiting the scope for rate cuts. Globally, most central banks, excluding those in the U.S. and Japan, are expected to adopt more accommodative policies to support slowing economies. However, the U.S. may face rising stagflation risks, while Japan could also see rising inflation, prompting continued monetary tightening by both central banks. Given these dynamics, the Thai baht is likely to weaken due to a narrowing trade and current account surplus, reduced capital inflows amid diverging monetary policies, and seasonal trends that typically pressure the baht mid-year.
In addition, the contraction in Thai exports may ease from -3.0% to -0.5% year-on-year, supported by better-than-expected export earnings. However, a slowdown is anticipated in the second half of the year, as many exporters have already accelerated shipments to the U.S. ahead of potential trade disruptions. The baht is also likely to weaken due to external pressures, particularly the risk that the U.S. Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for longer than market expectations. The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut its policy rate two more times following the April reduction to 1.75%. Further cuts are likely in August and October, driven by heightened economic risks from the global trade war, which is projected to have a more pronounced impact on the Thai economy in the latter half of the year. As a result, GDP growth may slow to 1.3% or lower. Additional factors supporting further easing include inflation remaining below target, a contraction in credit growth, and persistently tight financial conditions. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is therefore expected to implement further rate cuts in August and again in the final quarter. If the trade war and /or domestic political situation escalate and have a greater impact on the economy , the MPC may find it necessary to further cut interest rates to support economic.
The average exchange rate for the baht in 2025 is projected at 34.5 baht per U.S. dollar. A further weakening of the baht is expected in the second half of the year, driven by several factors: a slowdown in capital inflows into Thailand, weaker export performance, a slower-than-expected recovery in the tourism sector, and deteriorating economic data. Notably, the current support for the economy, such as accelerated exports, is seen as short-term and unlikely to be sustainable.
The investment strategy for the third quarter of 2025 is based on two economic scenarios. In the base case scenario, which carries a 60% probability, Thai GDP is expected to grow by 1.4%, with exports contracting by -3.0%. There is also a risk that the Thai economy may enter a technical recession in the second half of the year. In the best-case scenario, with a 40% probability, if trade negotiations with the U.S. are successful and global conditions improve, GDP could expand by 1.7%, with the export contraction easing to just -0.5%. Thailand currently faces six key risks: ongoing trade tensions and U.S. tariffs, a slowdown in tourism, weakness in the agricultural sector, political instability, elevated household debt, and a slowdown in private investment. Reflecting these concerns, the Thai stock market declined by 2% in the second quarter, underperforming both regional and global markets by 9%. The SET Index target for 2025 remains at 1,250 points, with limited new catalysts expected. However, a key buying opportunity is identified if the index falls below 1,100 points.
The outlook for the Thai stock market in the third quarter remains uncertain. While easing global trade tensions have reduced some external risks, they have also limited the market’s upside potential. Domestically, political uncertainty and ongoing border-area conflicts continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Although expectations of a policy rate cut may provide some short-term support, clear and sustained domestic catalysts remain lacking. Infrastructure projects continue to serve as a key driver, though associated operational risks must be closely monitored. The market is currently in an oversold condition, which may help cushion downside risks stemming from external factors, weak economic momentum, and subdued domestic investment. However, given these persistent uncertainties, the potential for a sustained market rebound remains limited. A meaningful recovery in the Thai equity market will likely depend on the implementation of genuinely accommodative monetary policy, the rollout of large-scale, tangible infrastructure projects, and improved system-wide liquidity. These elements are essential to break the current sideways trading pattern and unlock upward momentum.
Following that, a panel discussion on the topic "Global Market Outlook&Solutions Amidst Uncertainty" was held, featuring experts from SCB WEALTH and BlackRock. The panel included Mr. Roongroj Seksunwiriya, Senior Vice President of Investment Product Selection at Siam Commercial Bank; Mr. Nikhil Mehra, Managing Director and Head of APAC Multi-Asset Strategies & Solutions at BlackRock; Mr. Mark Fuszard, Director of APAC Multi-Asset Strategies & Solutions at BlackRock; and Mr. Thanapol Itthinithipak, Head of BlackRock’s Thailand Business. Together, they provided insights into the global economic outlook, which continues to face multiple risks. BlackRock noted that the probability of a global recession is rising and emphasized the importance of closely monitoring key indicators, such as import tariffs, unemployment levels, private consumption trends, and corporate earnings, to assess potential structural impacts across economies.
The panel also noted that while holding cash may help mitigate short-term risks during periods of market volatility, it could lead investors to miss out on significant returns during recovery phases. Therefore, BlackRock and SCB WEALTH recommend a "Stay Invested" approach—continuing to invest consistently without attempting to time the market—as a strategy for building long-term stability and wealth. However, the traditional 60/40 portfolio allocation (60% equities, 40% bonds) may no longer deliver optimal results in today’s market environment. Increasing exposure to alternative assets has become a key strategy for building more resilient portfolios. In particular, the use of Multi-Asset and Liquid Alternatives strategies, allowing flexible diversification across equities, bonds, and liquid alternative assets, offers a long-term solution that not only enhances portfolio balance but also provides effective downside protection during bear markets, especially amid heightened global uncertainty.
Mr. Roongroj added that the Global Multi-Asset Core Portfolio (SCBGMCORE) fund was specifically designed by BlackRock to align with the need of SCB’s clients. The SCBGMCORE fund follows a strategy that allocates approximately 75% of its portfolio to ETFs, diversifying across equities, fixed income, gold, REITs, and TIPS. The remaining 25% is allocated to highly liquid alternative assets through an Absolute Return strategy, aiming to enhance diversification and reduce portfolio volatility. The Fund is managed by BlackRock under an active management approach ,supported by robust risk. Management tools designed to maintain portfolio balance effectively under all market conditions. This structure is designed to support clients in achieving long-term financial goals with greater stability and sustainable growth.
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