บล.อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์ มองภาพรวมเศรษฐกิจโลกไตรมาส 4 ปี 2566 คาดชะลอตัวลงอย่างมีนัยสำคั
นายสุกิจ อุดมศิริกุล กรรมการผู้จัดการ สายงานวิจัย บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์ จำกัด กล่าวว่า “ภาพรวมเศรษฐกิจโลกไตรมาส 4 ปี 2566 คาดว่าจะชะลอตัวลงอย่างมีนั
ขณะที่ปัจจุบันเศรษฐกิ
พร้อมกันนี้ยังคาดว่ากระแสเงิ
เราประเมินเป้าหมาย SET Index ปีนี้ อยู่ที่ 1,650 จุด เป้าหมายปี 2567 อยู่ที่ 1,750 จุด ขณะที่ในไตรมาส 4 จุดเข้าซื้อที่สำคัญอยู่ที่ 1,500-1,550 จุด โดยผลตอบแทนที่คาดหวังอยู่ที่ 5-7%
“กลยุทธ์การลงทุน แนะนำโฟกัสไปที่หุ้นที่กำไรมี
รายละเอียดหุ้นเด่นในไตรมาส 4 ปี 2566
- AOT: Traffic เติบโตแข็งแกร่ง กำไรเติบโตแข็งแกร่ง
- BCH: กำไรฟื้นตัว การปรับเพิ่มอัตราการเหมาจ่
ายของประกันสังคม Valuation สมเหตุสมผล - CRC: กำไรฟื้นตัว ได้ประโยชน์จากมาตรการกระตุ้
นเศรษฐกิจ - KCE: แรงกดดันด้านต้นทุนลดลง อุปสงค์ฟื้นตัว การเติมสินค้าคงคลังของจีน กำไรผ่านจุดต่ำสุดไปแล้ว
- KTB: กำไรเติบโตอย่างแข็งแกร่ง
ด้าน นายพสุวุฒิ วิไลนิรันดร์ ผู้ช่วยกรรมการผู้จัดการ หัวหน้าฝ่ายกองทุนส่วนบุคคล บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์ จำกัด เปิดเผยว่า “สำหรับภาพรวมเศรษฐกิ
“การลงทุนที่ให้ผลตอบแทนที่ดี
#InnovestX #InnovestXResearch #จักรวาลการลงทุนในมือคุณ
InnovestX Exposes Global Economic Trends and End-of-Year Investment Strategy: Shedding Light on Thailand's Promising Economy with a SET Index Target of 1,650 Points"
- Recommends Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets: Vietnam and Indonesia
InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., SCBX Group’s Financial and Investment Flagship, provides an overview of the global economy in the fourth quarter of 2023. It anticipates significant challenges arising from three main factors: A Synchronized Slowdown, Higher for Longer interest rates, with expectations that central bank policies will maintain the current rate of 5.4% until the end of the year, and the Divergence in Economic Performance between the United States and other countries, notably Europe and China. As Thailand's economy is poised for robust recovery in 2024, driven by increased political stability and government stimulus measures, it is expected to expand by an additional 1% compared to previous estimates. This outlook predicts a resurgence of foreign capital inflows into the Thai market. The SET Index target for the end of 2023 is set at 1,650 points. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to consider stocks with clear profit trends and those benefiting from government stimulus. Highlighted stocks for the final quarter of 2023 include AOT, BCH, CRC, KCE, and KTB. Diversifying investments into emerging markets such as Vietnam and Indonesia, which stand to gain from the U.S.-China conflict, is also an opportunity worth exploring.
Mr. Sukit Udomsirikul, Managing Director and Chief Research Officer at InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd. stated, “The global economic landscape for the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to face significant challenges due to three main factors: 1. A Synchronized Slowdown in the global economy, particularly in developed countries. This slowdown is evidenced by a contraction in global manufacturing activities, as measured by the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The manufacturing sector has faced challenges due to higher interest rates, impacting demand for various products. Additionally, the service sector is now experiencing similar issues, driven by the prolonged period of high-interest rates. 2. Higher for Longer Interest Rates: In recent times, inflation has subsided in many developed countries, primarily driven by a reduction in production-related inflation. However, looking ahead, the persistently high-interest-rate environment in the service sector, coupled with rising oil prices following OPEC+'s production cuts, may make it more challenging for inflation to decline further. Consequently, central banks are compelled to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, which could exert additional pressure on the economy. 3. Divergence Among Economies (US and The Rest): The United States has exhibited relatively strong economic growth compared to other regions, notably Europe and China, which are facing significant slowdowns. The U.S. economy has been buoyed by wage increases, leading to robust consumer spending. However, in the near term, worsening financial conditions are expected to impact both consumer spending and business activities. Europe's economy is increasingly vulnerable to a potential setback due to tight monetary policies. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy faces the risk of a prolonged slowdown, reminiscent of the 'Lost Decade' experienced by Japan in the 1990s.”
While the Thai economy is currently experiencing a significant slowdown, there is optimism for the future due to increased political stability and government stimulus policies. We anticipate that the Thai economy in 2024 will show improved growth compared to 2023. Specifically, we expect the Thai economy to expand by 4.1% in 2024, which is higher than the previous estimate of 3%. This 1% increase is due to the government's economic stimulus measures, and it represents an improvement from the 2.7% growth observed in 2023.
Additionally, we expect foreign capital inflows will return to the Thai market when considering: 1. the improved growth trends in the Chinese economy, 2. the completion of credit rating adjustments, business performance, and GDP, 3. the Federal Reserve's easing of monetary policy, and 4. domestic economic stimulus measures and tourism.
However, two significant challenges remain. Firstly, the low water levels and the severe El Nino phenomenon during the crucial crop season could lead to significant agricultural damage. This may adversely affect the spending capacity of farmers, albeit mitigated by government economic stimulus measures in the first quarter. Secondly, if the government chooses to increase borrowing to support economic stimulus measures, it may have implications for fiscal strength.
Therefore, our SET Index target for this year is set at 1,650 points, with a target of 1,750 points for next year. Key entry points in the fourth quarter are expected to be in the range of 1,500-1,550 points, with expected returns ranging from 5-7%.
“Investment strategy should focus on stocks with a clear profit recovery trend, gradually increasing positions, and efficient cost management. Stocks that are closely related to domestic consumption within Thailand are likely to benefit from economic stimulus measures and profit recovery. Notable stocks for the fourth quarter of 2023 include AOT, BCH, CRC, KCE, and KTB,” emphasized Mr. Sukit.
Key Highlights of Stocks for the Fourth Quarter of 2023:
- AOT: Strong growth in traffic and profits.
- BCH: Profit recovery, increased social insurance premium rates, and favorable valuations.
- CRC: Profit recovery and benefits from economic stimulus measures.
- KCE: Cost Pressures Ease, Prospects for Recovery, and Chinese Inventory Replenishment Drive Profits Beyond the Bottom
- KTB: Strong profit growth.
On the other hand, Mr. Phasuvut Vilainerun, Assistant Managing Director and Head of Private Fund at InnovestX Securities Co., Ltd., revealed, “For the global economic outlook in the fourth quarter, there are still risks stemming from a recession in the United States and Europe, internal economic issues in China, and renewed inflation. Additionally, global interest rates remain high. Therefore, investment remains cautious, with a focus on selecting individual stocks from countries with faster economic growth rates than Thailand. Vietnam, with a nearly 100-million population and an economy smaller than Thailand's, but with GDP growth rates over the past five years consistently around 6-7% per year, double that of Thailand. Indonesia, with a population of over 270 million, ranks as the world's fourth most populous country, following China, India, and the United States. Despite having the largest economy in ASEAN, it continues to grow at a rate of 5% per year. Both countries have attracted significant foreign investments, with direct investment last year being 2 and 4 times higher for Vietnam and Indonesia, respectively, compared to Thailand. Moreover, both nations have a substantial working-age population, comprising up to 50-60% of their total populations. These individuals are transitioning from agriculture to industry and increasingly residing in urban areas, resulting in rapidly rising incomes. This, in turn, is expected to lead to increased spending over the next 5-10 years. Industries set to benefit from this growing middle-class population include consumer goods and services like food and beverages, electronics, mobile phones, and jewelry. The shift in purchasing behavior from traditional trade to modern trade, which is growing rapidly, and the expanding accessibility of retail credit to the general population, currently at low levels, are poised for significant expansion in the future.”
“Investments that yield excellent returns often occur during periods when most investors are concerned about various negative factors at a macro level. This leads to selling stocks at prices lower than their long-term value. For instance, the fears of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, concerns about high inflation rates, and rapid interest rate hikes in 2021-2022, and apprehensions about an economic recession in 2023. Personally, I view these as investment opportunities that can yield better long-term returns if we can select the right stocks and buy when others are fearful of the stock market,” Mr. Phasuvut concluded.
#InnovestX #InnovestXResearch #InvestmentUniverseInYourHands
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